ウクライナ貨ペ YA rates hit historic low against the dollar as NBU steps up intervention

なぜ重要か

The historic low of the hryvnia, the widening gap between official and black-market exchange rates, and the scale of NBU interventions all point to substantial pressure on Ukraine’s currency and heightened market volatility. A growing trade deficit and strong import demand could add further pressure. At the same time, the declining real returns on long-term hryvnia deposits and domestic-government bonds may weaken the incentive to keep savings in the national currency.

何が起きたか

On 4 November, the National Bank of Ukraine set the official dollar rate at 45.6660 hryvnias per dollar. The currency strengthened by 13 kopecks in a single day and reached a record low against the dollar. The euro was set at 51.06 hryvnias, up 1 kopeck. The official dollar rate had stood at 45.0802 hryvnias on 14 October, while PrivatBank bought dollars at 45.50 and sold them at 46.10 on 4 November.

NBU sold more than $6 billion on the interbank market during October. Interventions on the final week of the month amounted to a record $1.818 billion, with monthly volumes remaining at $5–6 billion for the fifth consecutive month. Businesses were buying substantially more foreign currency than they were selling, and rapid growth in budget spending contributed to significant market volatility late on 3 November and early on 4 November.

On 3 November, after the gap between the official rate and banks’ retail exchange rates widened, NBU announced operations exchanging banks’ foreign currency holdings for cash to replenish their cash balances. The regulator said it had met banks’ requests in full and saw no economic reason for a further increase in that gap. It also said it had sufficient international reserves to smooth exchange-rate fluctuations.

ウクライナメディアの見方

Ukrainian reporting focuses on the NBU’s interventions, the divergence between official, bank and black-market rates, and the immediate effects of hryvnia depreciation on domestic markets. It also highlights the trade deficit, import demand, budget spending, banks’ cash liquidity and the outlook for savings held in hryvnias.

背景

At the end of October, the black-market “blue” dollar reached 47.50 hryvnias and the “white” dollar reached 47.00. Ukraine’s trade deficit was reported at $44 billion in the previous year, while analysts estimated that just under half of the import flow went directly to retail rather than to weapons or generators for the front. Holiday sellers have reportedly priced the dollar at no less than 55 hryvnias, and some leading analysts have begun mentioning a rate of 80 hryvnias per dollar in currency reviews.