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ウクライナ人口、中間時点で2850万人と推計　50万人減少

ウクライナ科学アカデミー人文・社会研究所“M.V.プチャ研究所”（名称は要確認）は2026年年中Majesty ukrainske, ukrainske, the government-controlled territory of Ukraine had 28.5 million residents. The estimate is about 0.5 million lower than the previous estimate, with emigration identified as the main driver rather than war deaths. At the end of August, 4.43 million Ukrainians were under temporary protection in the EU.

要点

  • 2026年年中のウクライナ政府支配地域の人口は2850万人と推計された
  • 新推計は前季度的估计より約50万人少ない
  • rugi人口减少の主な原因は戦死ではなく海外への移住とされた
  • previous estimate was made jointly by the State Statistics Service and the Institute of Demography
  • 8月31日現在、EUで一時保護を受けるウクライナ人は443万人
  • ドイツ109万人、ポーランド93万9千人、チェコ39万8千人
  • Institute of Demography is developing a new migration strategy with mechanisms for postwar return

なぜ重要か

The revision indicates a substantial population decline on Ukraine's government-controlled territory. Emigration is identified as the main cause of the loss rather than war deaths, while the scale of temporary protection in the EU shows the extent of international displacement. Falling births, mortality exceeding births, and the possibility of another migration wave after martial law ends create additional demographic pressures.

何が起きたか

The Institute of Demography estimated that Ukraine's government-controlled territory had 28.5 million residents in mid-2026, completing its calculations shortly before the announcement. The figure is about 0.5 million lower than the previous estimate of approximately 29 million made jointly by the State Statistics Service and the Institute of Demography in July 2026. That earlier estimate was based on data from three mobile operators and state registers, including internally displaced persons, and had a possible error of around 300,000 people. Migration, both internal and external, was identified as the main demographic factor. According to Eurostat, 4.43 million Ukrainians were under temporary protection in the EU as of August 31.

ウクライナメディアの見方

Ukrainian reporting focuses on the revised population estimate, the methodological difference from the earlier estimate, and migration as the principal cause of population decline. It also highlights unfavorable demographic trends, including mortality exceeding births and a sharp decline in births during the first half of 2026. Further concerns focus on a possible male migration wave after martial law ends and the ability to provide returning servicemembers with acceptable jobs and wages.

海外メディアの見方

International coverage emphasizes the revised estimate and presents migration, rather than war deaths, as the main driver of population loss. It places the figure alongside the number of Ukrainians holding temporary protection in EU countries, as well as the risk of additional migration and the possibility of return after the war.

背景

The estimate covers government-controlled Ukrainian territory rather than the entire country. Mortality currently exceeds births by approximately 3.5 times, compared with a ratio of about three times in 2022–2025. The Institute of Demography is developing a migration strategy with mechanisms for postwar return.